This period followed the removal of most COVID-related restrictions in China- such as testing requirements and quarantine rules-which essentially restored the country's economy to business-as-usual. We compared emissions data from January to April 2019 (which represents typical pre-pandemic conditions in China) with the corresponding months in 2023. We examined data from Carbon Monitor, which provides science-based estimates of daily CO₂ emissions across the world. Others have said the peak will occur even earlier, in 2025.īut unfortunately, it seems those predictions were too optimistic. Some researchers examined the trends in China's emissions up to 2019 and predicted the nation's emissions would peak by 2026. This led to hopes of a 'green' economic recovery in which government stimulus spending would be invested into climate-friendly projects, to ensure a longer-term slowing of growth in emissions. The COVID pandemic curbed greenhouse gas emissions in 2020, largely due to a drop in passenger travel.

That's bad news for global efforts to tackle climate change.

But China's new path seems to be less sustainable than before. Many believed the economic recovery from COVID would steer global development towards a less carbon-intensive footing. Our analysis suggests China may struggle to reach these ambitious goals. Under the Paris Agreement, China has pledged to ensure carbon emissions peak by 2030 and reach net zero emissions by 2060. Power generation and industry are driving the increase. Emissions rose 10% between the two periods, despite the pandemic and China's faltering economic recovery. We compared emissions in China over the first four months of 2019-before the pandemic-and 2023.

China carbon emissions